Monte Carlo isn't more precise — it admits you can't be precise

If you only look at a single expected value (say, an ARR expectation of $5M), you'll make decisions that don't match the real risk.

Our ARR Monte Carlo model shows: at the end of 5 years, P10 = $2.2M, P50 = $5.1M, P90 = $11.7M.

That means there's a 10% chance you only reach $2.2M (well below the minimum threshold for scaling). That P10 is what you should use as the basis for your 'capital-budget decision.'

In our product, every number shows three bands by default (P10 · P50 · P90), with a bootstrap confidence interval.

This is our biggest difference from traditional consulting firms: we don't pretend to be precise.