Insights

Methodology · data · counter-falsification.

We publish our research methods, technical architecture, and failure cases — that's how we build trust with you.

2026-04-22Chen Wei · Chief Analyst

What pre-founders actually need isn't more data — it's fewer illusions

Across the 86 projects we've coached, 63% of failures traced back to one common problem: using survivorship bias as the basis for decisions.

Pre-foundingDecision methodology

2026-04-15Li Xiao · Legal Architecture

Why a '5% equity alignment'? — The economics of the Deep Program

5% isn't a number game. It's the boundary of shared obligation between the platform and the project — neither replacing the founder's decisions nor degrading into 'pay-to-deliver.'

EquityDeep Program

2026-03-28Mariam K. · Head of Quant Research

Monte Carlo isn't more precise — it admits you can't be precise

We don't show 'expected value,' we show P10–P50–P90. Not because we fear accountability, but because expected value lies.

Quant methodsMonte Carlo

2026-03-12Tobias W. · Platform Architecture

The regulatory-scan agent: 3 countries, 7 regulations, full recompute in 72 hours

How we use a single agent to recompute the impact of a policy change across all your project models within 72 hours.

ArchitectureCompliance

2026-02-25Chen Wei · Chief Analyst

How does the Critic Agent work? — Counter-falsification in multi-agent collaboration

A single LLM easily falls into survivorship bias. The Critic Agent's job is to falsify, not to confirm.

ArchitectureAI agents

2026-02-10Li Xiao · Industry Research

AI Applications & Data Services: a 2027 outlook and three key inflection points

Our track engine gives AI applications a 79.96% top-pick frequency. But that doesn't mean every AI project will succeed.

Track analysisAI

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