Market & Financials · Models 01 / 04 / 05 / 06 / 07
Every number · recomputable line by line.
Market sizing, financial paths, probability distributions, sensitivity — every chart comes from a Python script in the repo. The investor reproducibility pack includes all SEEDs, parameters, and intermediate data.
TAM · SAM · SOM · Model 01
First, let's get the market sizing straight.
Intent pool: based on the State Administration for Market Regulation's 4.546M newly registered enterprises in 2024 + broad entrepreneurial intent (unregistered founders, sole proprietors upgrading, serial founders, overseas Chinese), totaling ~12.3M people.
TAM · Deep-analysis annual fee pool
Intent pool × paid conversion × ARPU; mid ARPU = $1920/yr
SAM · Serviceable market
TAM × serviceable ratio 0.42 (language / region / compliance)
SOM · Year-5 share
SAM × share scenarios (low / mid / high)
Five-year paying users & cash-revenue path (mid scenario)
P&L · Model 07
Five-year P&L · triple revenue: subscription · cash · equity.
Revenue breakdown (USD M)
5-year cumulative
- Subscription cumulative$184.9M
- Cash consulting / B2B cumulative$157.3M
- Equity exit (median) cumulative$12.9M
- Total revenue$355.1M
- Net profit (after tax)$235.2M
Year-by-year P&L
| Year | Revenue | OpEx | EBIT | Tax & other | Net profit | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $5.3M | $6M | $-0.7M | $0.1M | $-0.8M | -15.1% |
| 2027 | $17M | $9.7M | $7.3M | $1.3M | $6M | 35.3% |
| 2028 | $44.4M | $14.6M | $29.8M | $4.8M | $25M | 56.3% |
| 2029 | $100.3M | $20M | $80.3M | $12.5M | $67.8M | 67.6% |
| 2030 | $188.1M | $26M | $162.1M | $24.9M | $137.2M | 72.9% |
Monte Carlo · Models 02 + 04
Uncertainty is not hidden — all 12K–30K paths shown.
Year-5 ARR distribution (USD M) · 20K paths
P10 = $2.34M · P50 = $4.74M · P90 = $9.43M
User NPV improvement (thousand USD) · smart vs random baseline
Median $118K · P(improvement>0) = 64.6%
5% equity-portfolio annual exit cash band P10–P50–P90 · 12K paths
5-year cumulative median = $13.74M · typical stake 5% · median post-money $12M · median MOIC 1.8x
Success Probability · Model 05
Project success-probability distribution · 10-factor scoring.
≥ Tier-2 commercial success probability = 34.38% · survival ≥ Tier-3 = 76.75%
Outcome distribution
Factor sensitivity · marginal contribution of a +10% lift
- team+1.57
- market timing+1.38
- moat+1.19
- unit economics+1.19
- product quality+0.99
- gtm efficiency+0.99
- regulatory+0.69
- data assets+0.69
Sensitivity · Model 06
Base NPV = $31.76M · sensitivity + two-factor heatmap
Discount rate 35% · startup hurdle rate · less 45% (tax + buffer) · Y0 initial investment $-10M
Single-factor tornado chart
Each factor's ±20% marginal impact on NPV (USD M). Bar length reflects impact magnitude; sign indicates the direction of deviation from base NPV.
ARPU × conversion two-factor heatmap
| ARPU \ Conv. | -30% | -15% | 0% | +15% | +30% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -30% | -29 | -23 | -17 | -11 | -5 |
| -15% | -23 | -16 | -9 | -1 | +6 |
| 0% | -17 | -9 | +0 | +9 | +17 |
| +15% | -11 | -1 | +9 | +18 | +28 |
| +30% | -5 | +6 | +17 | +28 | +39 |
Values are NPV deviation from base (USD M). Green/gold is positive, deep navy is negative; the center (ARPU=0, conv=0) is the base scenario.
Every calculation · recomputed with one command.
SEED = 20260501 · python models/run_all.py · JSON output → read directly by the site
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